Value mutual funds have witnessed robust investor interest, garnering Rs 22,757 crore in inflows in 2024, nearly double the amount seen in 2023, fueled by impressive returns generated by the segment. This surge reflects a shift in investor focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
The last time this happened was in 1996.
After a brutal selloff since October, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows for the year-to-date (YTD) in 2024 have turned negative. In early September, YTD FPI investments peaked at a record Rs 22,000 crore ($2.6 billion). This wave of selling has also pulled down benchmark indices, with the Nifty's YTD returns declining to 11 per cent from their high of 21 per cent in September.
The last time these two indexes recorded a negative performance on a calendar year basis was in CY19.
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Quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and other global trends will be the major driving factors for determining movement in the domestic equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, factors like trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading.
The outlook for India's financial sector appears bright, but it needs to brace for likely vulnerabilities, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. The Indian financial sector is at a "turnpike moment", it said, adding that the dominance of banking support to credit is being reduced, and the role of capital markets is rising. For a country that aspires to be a developed nation by 2047, this is a long-awaited and welcome development, it said.
The Income Tax department has enabled online filing of income tax returns (ITRs) 1 and 4, filed by individuals, professionals and small businesses, for 2022-23 fiscal. In a tweet, the income tax department said, the software/utilities for preparing other ITRs/ Forms will be enabled shortly.
The Income Tax Department has notified ITR forms 1 and 4, which are filed by individuals and entities with annual total income of up to Rs 50 lakh for FY 2023-24 (AY 2024-25). Individuals, besides Hindu Undivided Families (HUFs), firms having income up to Rs 50 lakh and those having earnings from business and profession in the current fiscal (April 2023-March 2024) can start filing returns for the income earned this financial year.
Mutual funds (MFs) scooped up smallcap shares across sectors such as healthcare, banking and financial services in March 2024 amid a near 4.5 per cent fall in key smallcap indices. Aster DM Healthcare, NLC India, and Aavas Financiers topped the list of most-bought stocks in the Rs 10,000-40,000 crore market capitalisation (mcap) bracket, according to a study by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. Aster and Aavas had corrected by 13 per cent and 10 per cent in March, respectively, while NLC India ended the month with a 2.5 per cent gain.
Information technology (IT) stocks ended at their lowest in nearly nine months after a fresh bout of selling, triggered by concerns over a recession in the US, the key market for domestic software exporters. A report by Morgan Stanley citing risks to growth also weighed on sentiment.
Donald Trump's Presidency of the United States will open new opportunities for India though certain sectors, especially pharma and IT, may face the heat if the incoming president decides to impose restrictions on imports and H1B visa regulations, experts said on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's friendly relationship with Trump will have a positive bearing on Indo-US relations but India may have to adapt its strategies to maintain cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
The equity market's recent downturn appears unlikely to slow the brisk pace of mutual fund (MF) scheme launches, at least in the coming weeks. Last month, fund houses introduced 21 new equity schemes, with another five launches already lined up for November. The number of filing with markets regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), suggests this momentum will continue with asset management companies (AMCs) seeking approval for 21 more equity schemes in October.
Wholesale price based inflation declined to a 3-month low of 1.89 per cent in November on cheaper food items, and experts predicted a 0.25 per cent interest rate cut by the RBI in the policy review in February. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.36 per cent in October 2024. It was 0.39 per cent in November, last year. In August, 2024, it was 1.25 per cent.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on the proposed felling of over 2,600 trees in Mumbai's Aarey area by the Maharashtra government for its metro project and the controversies surrounding it.
Credit card spending reached Rs 2 trillion in October, a 14.5 per cent rise from September, largely driven by festival season purchases. However, the volume of outstanding credit cards increased only marginally during the same period. The spike in spending comes at a time when nearly all major credit card issuers are calibrating their growth in the segment due to visible signs of stress.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said there is no plan to loosen interest rates as inflation continues to be the top priority for the central bank. Speaking to reporters at the central bank headquarters here, Das clarified that the inclusion of "over tightening" in his statement while announcing the fifth consecutive status quo in rates, should not be construed as anything else. A "loosening" in rates is not on the table, Das added.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on the Supreme Court order which restrained the Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation authorities from cutting any more trees in Mumbai's Aarey forest.
After a year of decline, mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in India increased 13.8 per cent, reaching $69.2 billion in the first nine months of 2024, as against $60.8 billion during the same period in 2023. Led by Indian companies and private-equity (PE) firms, 2,301 transactions were signed between January and September this year as compared to 1,855 transactions reported in the same period last year, according to the Bloomberg data.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for making lending rates affordable may not resonate anytime soon as banks still struggle with margin compression, and await clues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on liquidity and rate action. Hinting that any lending rate cut was some time away, State Bank of India (SBI) managing director Vinay M Tonse said there was still some aggression in the market regarding deposit pricing.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
Days before Diwali, the monthly economic review by the finance ministry has highlighted moderation in urban demand, softening consumer sentiments and limited footfall as areas that need to be watched. In its review, released on Monday, the ministry also noted the early signs of artificial intelligence displacing workers, as described in anecdotal reports. The commentary from several large consumer goods companies, including Nestl India, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC, in their recent quarterly earnings, has been around a sluggish urban demand. Rural consumption, however, has mostly seen a revival, the companies pointed out.
The funding environment in India for startups is improving this year if one were to go by Bain & Company estimates. Five private equity (PE) investors that come on top on the criterion of deal size collectively put in $9 billion in the first half of 2024, surpassing their outlay for last calendar year, when it was $8 billion. At the top of the list is Swedish firm EQT, which acquired US-based and listed Perficient at an enterprise value of $3 billion, the deal being done by the Indian wing of the company. It has also added to its list by putting in $500 million in WSO2, a "software as a service" company, increasing its tally to $3.5 billion.
Fewer people participated in MGNREGA during the first six months of this financial year (April-September) compared to the same period last year, a recent analysis of the scheme's performance by LibTech showed.
'I now see rates rising again, particularly after recent losses - especially the January wildfires in Los Angeles.'
The last batch of quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will guide the equity market movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Volatility may continue amid investors' cautious approach in the election season. Markets will remain closed on Monday due to the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai.
As per the Interim Budget 2024-25 document tabled in the Lok Sabha, the government is not expected to receive any money from monetisation of public assets in the current fiscal.
While liquidity in the banking system has turned surplus in the last few weeks, it could go back to deficit again, mainly due to corporate advance tax outflows. The net liquidity surplus of the banking system rose to touch Rs 1 trillion on Tuesday on the back of government spending, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India.
Public sector banks (PSBs) have proposed the Finance Ministry their plan to raise Rs 54,800 crore through Additional Tier-1 (AT-1) and Tier-2 bonds in the current financial year (FY25), 37 per cent more than the Rs 39,880 crore raised in FY24
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The gig economy market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17 per cent to reach a gross volume of $455 billion by the end of 2024, according to a white paper by The Forum for Progressive Gig Workers. Estimates suggest the gig economy has the potential to create 90 million jobs and add 1.25 per cent to India's GDP (gross domestic product) over time.
Net foreign direct investment (FDI) in India, inflows minus outflows, declined 38.4 per cent year-on-year to $15.41 billion in the first 10 months of this financial year due to an increase in the repatriation of capital. According to the Reserve Bank of India's data in the March 2024 bulletin, FDI in India was $25.53 billion and outflows were $10.11 billion in April 2023-January 2024. In the same period last year, FDI inflows stood at $36.75 billion and outflows at $11.75 billion.
Alternative investment funds (AIFs) have crossed Rs 5 trillion in terms of funds raised, while the investment commitments have surpassed Rs 12 trillion for the first time as of September, according to data released by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).
The Fintech Association for Consumer Empowerment (FACE), the only self-regulatory organisation for financial technology/fintech (SRO-FT) companies, is aiming to secure membership from at least 75 per cent of players across all key fintech categories within the next three years, according to a senior executive. The total number of members in the organisation has increased to 110, up from around 60 when it received approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to operate as an SRO-FT in August.
The ongoing fourth quarter earnings season, global factors and macroeconomic data would guide the trends in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Markets would also take cues from trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude. "Domestically, the next batch of Q4 earnings reports will drive stock-specific movements, Hero MotoCorp, Larsen & Toubro, BPCL, State Bank of India, Eicher Motors and Tata Motors are some of the big names in the list and the next phase of voting," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
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Life insurers shifted their focus to selling high-value policies in October as the transition to new surrender value norms, effective October 1, limited their ability to roll out all products in their portfolio. This led to a 40 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) drop in the number of policies sold in October. Additionally, distributors engaged in a fire sale of policies in September due to uncertainty about the impact of the new norms on their commission structures.
In a data-packed week, the domestic macroeconomic figures -- industrial production and inflation numbers -- along with global trends would dictate trends in the equity market this week, analysts said. According to experts, markets may face volatile trends due to high valuations. Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their fresh record peaks on Thursday. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading in equities.
Major credit issuers, including the largest - HDFC Bank - have integrated their systems with the Bharat Bill Payment Systems (BBPS) for receiving credit card repayments via third-party applications.
Private sector bank board members have urged the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) top brass to consider workload management of the boards as they feel there are too many issues that go to the boards for approval and the situation becomes unmanageable at times. The views were conveyed to the regulator on Monday in a conference of directors of private sector bank boards on the theme "Transformative Governance Through Sound Boards". RBI governor Shaktikanta Das, deputy governors Swaminathan J and M Rajeshwar Rao, and other senior officials of the central bank participated in the conference.
